The sour taste of the margin of error
Surprise, surprise, the pollsters and the pundits got it wrong – again
By Bruce Wark

Oh great, here we go again, I thought cheerfully, as I watched CBC's The National, on October 23rd, the day after Jean Chrétien called 'Election 2000.' Peter Mansbridge had just announced that "former political pollster and strategist Allan Gregg will be joining us most nights as our campaign analyst, helping us try to understand why the politicians do the things they do."

Gregg wasted no time helping us try to understand. "Well, this is the phony war period," he declared before launching into a detailed explanation of "what we call exogenous variables of the campaign that you cannot control."

Articulate as always and never at a loss for words, Gregg's reassuring nightly presence on The National demonstrated once again the Canadian media's wise reliance on polls and pollsters. This is the same Allan Gregg who for the past 16 years has delivered a year-end report on the mood of the nation to the grateful readers of Maclean's magazine.

For 16 years Maclean's has unselfishly shared the information (and presumably Gregg's modest bill) with first CTV and then CBC television. And for 16 consecutive years, Gregg has discovered the amazing scientific Truth that Newfoundlanders are the most sexually active citizens in the true north strong and free. Yes, a truly amazing discovery when you consider that Gregg's sample size on the Rock has never been larger than a very economical 80 and his margins of error never less than plus or minus 11.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20!

A record-low turnout at the polls and still the few dummies who did bother to vote got it all wrong. Obviously the voters failed to pay the slightest attention to that flood of expensive media polls.

But what the heck, that part of the Maclean's survey is a "fun poll" and like jolly Newfoundlanders themselves, not to be taken too seriously. Election polls on the other hand, are definitely meant to be taken too seriously. Each campaign there's a steady stream of them. Journalists quite rightly shape their coverage according to this Niagara of numbers and the amazingly clever pundits chew them over thoroughly as they call each lap of the nail-biting political horse races that modern campaigns have become.

"Liberals sag, except in Ontario," a Globe and Mail front page headline announced on November 3rd. "Liberals slip after debate as voters 'take a look'" the Globe declared on November 13th. "Going gets tough for Liberals," the Globe warned on November 23rd, noting in its lead paragraph that "four days before the vote, the governing Liberals are under fire from all sides, no longer coasting to the easy victory they had hoped for when they called an early election." Immediately, I informed my few friends that the "arrogant" Libs were in deep doo-doo.

And guess what? The Canadian Alliance was in deep doo-doo, too! The Globe summed it up neatly in a single headline on November 14th: "Liberal woes not helping Day: poll."

Meanwhile, Joe Clark of the Tories and Alexa McDonough of the NDP were also faring badly. Mired in single digits in the early going, both were stuck with also-ran coverage - brief clips the pool cameras frequently provided for national TV.
But, wait, a National Post headline announced on November 11th that "Poll shows Clark won debate" and suddenly there's Tory "momentum." "PM fights Tory tide from East," a Globe headline blurted out excitedly with the campaign coming down to the wire.

With a scant 60 hours to go, CBC Radio's national weekly political affairs program, "The House," squeezes as much poll-induced wisdom as it can into its mere 48 minutes and 30 seconds of air time. The House quite properly devoted a grand total of 11 seconds to the Bloc, 37 seconds to the NDP and 15 minutes and 13 seconds to Joe Clark's suddenly-soaring Tories. Wow!

Unfortunately, the campaign ended. Finally election night arrived. Allan Gregg and all the glittering TV pundits were there to help the journalists bring Canadians the results. I always hate this part. It's rarely as exciting as the opinion polls during the campaign. And sure enough, the 'sagging' Liberals coast to an easy majority. The Alliance gains a few. The NDP and the Bloc lose a few. Joe Clark's momentum carries the Tories all the way to 12 seats!

I go to bed with a sour taste in my mouth, bitterly aware of the urgent need for electoral reform. A record-low turnout at the polls and still the few dummies who did bother to vote got it all wrong. Obviously the voters failed to pay the slightest attention to that flood of expensive media polls. If only we could muster the courage to change the constitution to give the pollsters, the pundits, and our most senior political journalists the power to decide the final outcome. That way, we'd get the right results, 20 times out of 20!

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Bruce Wark teaches at the school of journalism at Kings College in Halifax.